With a ripping move in the last two weeks, USD/JPY is on the radar again. Any time the yen weakens we hear about the enormous Japanese public debt and their seemingly eternal easing program and how it’s all going to come crashing down. Then there is the almost comical official “reactions” to yen strength. Since the all time high of about 306 in December of 1975, it made a record low of 75.55 in October of 2011. In the 80’s economic boom the exchange rate moved from 260 in early 1985 to 120 in 3 years – a massive appreciation! When Japanese economy, stock market, property prices peaked in 1990 the exchange rate was 160. All that can be seen on the charts below which will naturally exclude anything fundamental about the USD/JPY. Most charts have comments on them and I’m starting from lower timeframes first.
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So whilst everyone can see that the loooong term trend is down for this pair, markets move up and down and we shouldn’t be surprised if this pair goes a lot higher. Doesn’t mean it will even though there is a lot of energy about 85.50 in the shorter term.
The title of this post is just my attempt at some humour because I really don’t have a clue what awaits in the week ahead. All I have is ideas for set-ups, some probabilities, and how I will trade them.
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It is widely believed that USD/CAD “leads” the other USD pairs. I don’t follow this pair all that much so I don’t know if that’s true or not. What it shows is USD strength late on Friday, much more than other USD pairs. Maybe it was just a result of weak Canadian economic data. Of greater interest to me though are the clear tradeable levels and the hourly RSI clearly in bear-zone. Any serious move by RSI above 70 could be a trend changer.
Above are both the 1hr and Daily charts for EUR/JPY. We had a big 350pip move to end the week, significantly breaking out above previous daily highs. RSI on both timeframes is in the “strength” zone above 70 which indicates to me that the move is strong and will continue so buying dips would be encouraged. We know nothing goes in a straight line and I’d be looking for at least a 100pip retrace if the little double top on the hourly holds. There is also a sweet correlation that a 38.2% retrace move is almost exactly the previous daily high. If hourly RSI goes well below 30 then my bullish view may change.
GBP/JPY – ditto.
I’ve opted for the Daily and Weekly charts of AUD/USD. Friday’s candle was a shooting star at a previous high. I love shooting stars and definitely expect some kind of reversal. I’ve included the weekly chart on the right to show what could happen if there is no reversal or if it is a short-lived reversal. A break above the daily double top would see me a super AUD bull to look for a major double top on the weekly. 106.20 is a BIG line in the sand.
I wasn’t going to cover EUR/USD, it’s been done to death all over twitter and elsewhere but bugger it, here it is. The daily chart on the left shows how huge this move has been – a 1,126 pip move in only 38 trading days. And that 38.2% number has reared its head again. The gap has been filled and a trendline on RSI is inviting itself to be broken. The weekly chart on right only shows a rough channel that could look different depending on points used – a very rough visual guide only. I admit to trying to pick this top a couple times on Friday. I failed and stepped aside. If it fails at 1.3150 again then the choice to short again will be easier.