USD/JPY 27/12/2012

With the target from our analysis 4 weeks ago hit, it’s time to look forward again. It’s been a huge move. Although we don’t know what will happen next we can think in terms of probabilities. USD/JPY is overbought on daily and weekly charts. We can expect some kind of relief at some point and now is as good a time as any. It doesn’t have to, it doesn’t need to, it could break out higher as I click on “publish”, but then we’d never trade. As the daily chart below shows, a backtest of the aqua line at a previous resistance point near 82.85 would keep the up move healthy and remain bullish.

uj1

But what if it wants to go higher? It’s tricky looking up higher as there is not much to the left of current price so I’ve opted for the Fibonacci expansion to find potential targets. Assuming the current move is 100% complete then higher targets can be found at 91.00 and then near 94.50 as per chart below. But only if the current move is complete. Any move to new highs in the next day or two would invalidate all of the above requiring a re-drawing of the charts. And if it marches on relentlessly then there’s not much in the way to 94.50.

uj2

10c

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