Been a while since I’ve looked at a pair top-down style, going through the time frames. Here we go.
AUD/USD monthly chart shows two distinct and well defined price moves – a range of approx. 3000 pips and another of approx. 5000 pips. The recent all time high (post float) completed both these ranges.
A week ago I pointed out a very bearish candle pattern on the weekly called an evening star. This has been followed by a lower weekly close with a candle that could also be considered bearish.
The hourly chart above points to a trend change – bearish MAs, bearish colour zone, break down of uptrend channel, a new low, and more moves below 30 than over 70 on hourly RSI since the high.
There are many indications that we’ve seen a high on AUD/USD. A 100pip move up from current levels could easily happen and would not change the above analysis. 200pips and I’d have to re-think. 🙂