G’day. I’ve returned to trading after a four week break which included a great two week family holiday to the sunshine state. I didn’t read a newspaper for the whole of the two weeks I was away and I feel amazingly refreshed. Before the break the charts looked blurry and fuzzy and at one point I thought I could feel real pain in my eyes. The wins were becoming less frequent and my decision making was becoming downright pathetic. I’ve vowed to take more frequent breaks in the future to avoid that kind of frame of mind occurring again.
My last blog post was of the S&P500 with ATR so I’ll follow up with an updated daily chart with ATR. Basically, an average true range of 18 or less on S&P500 is bull market territory. Currently ATR is up at 32 which hasn’t really changed much at all since mid-August. If you’re interested to have a closer look you can see clear correlation with price and ATR. You can also see clear divergence on some previous falls (May – Oct 2010 and late 2008 – early 2009) that signalled price rises. I won’t be trading this chart but as long as ATR remains high I’ll be selling rallies.