Trading Journal Week 21/3/2016

This is the first entry of a trading journal that I intend to do every week. It’s main purpose is to keep me honest about my trading. Lately I’ve been trading alone without the scrutiny of another set of eyes and my discipline and performance had lapsed.

It will begin with a set of Levels and ranges I’ll be watching and trading for the week. Then as I open and close a trade I will tweet it and embed the relevant tweet here. It may or may not get views but it needs to be done.

Also it’s a 4 day week (pre-Easter).

Trade #1 – USDCAD I’m quite sure it failed as my entry wasn’t timed well enough for the size of my stop/risk.

Trade#2 –  EURJPY Looking at the chart below I see no valid reason to have even opened a trade. None whatsoever.

Trade #3 – AUDJPY was 3rd consecutive fail. I traded off the 8470 line which in hindsight was too minor a level. The next line below near 8430 provided support and bounces all week.

Trade #4 – GBPUSD I got every level spot on here but was content with this one trade.

Trade #5 – AUDUSD I added a new line based on current Weekly low to enter if new low was made. That’s not how I do things.

Trade #6 – USDJPY I traded correctly here. My stop got spiked during Brussels bombing events.

Trade #7 – NZDUSD Entry was correct. Target was based on AWR which wasn’t achieved even after 4 trading days. So I took the money and said goodbye.

Trade #8 – USDCAD same setup and idea as before. Moved quite well during Brussels hours where I moved stop to entry point and it got hit in the volatility. Not a mistake.

Trade #9 – EURGBP This level was too vague to have succeeded. Had I won it would have been luck. While no great harm in trying, my mistake here was not to reduce size to accommodate a bigger stop for the vagueness. Ended up a -2R lose

Trade #10 – EURUSD Forgot to tweet exit but went out for -0.5R. Wasn’t smart entry, similar to AUDUSD earlier relying on momentum and not waiting nearer to the level.

Trade #11 – AUDUSD This was another entry but much higher up nearer to tough resistance. Didn’t get the chart posted. But once it failed to break again I started adding to trade.

Trade #12 – USDJPY just like CAD above the idea and level was there. Out for zero after adding and adjusting risk, ie. tinkering with stop levels.

Trade #13 – USDCAD 3rd time lucky. Set and forget. No tinkering or adding.

Trade #14 – EURUSD level was definitely broken here. Got to +40 and just struggled to get on with it. Moved stop to zero and that’s what I got.

End of week report

 

Trade #15 – GBPJPY Wasn’t going to open another trade but this level looked too juicy.

AUD Update

Following on from my previous post The Aussie Dollar: On Cliff’s Edge here’s an update of what some of the weekly charts are looking like.

Firstly, here’s a chart I’ve been sharing on twitter this week, AUDUSD monthly.

au04

Apart from GFC we haven’t seen much follow through after big red monthly candles.
“This time it’s different”. Interest rates, the economy, China, etc. Maybe. But I’m trading the probabilities here and fully expecting a shorter term bounce (as supported by weekly chart below).
Keep in mind I’m only looking at the probability for the month of June here and not looking beyond. The large descending triangle suggests longer term weakness and an eventual 80c, but of course I’m getting way ahead of myself and beyond my trading timeframe.

Below is AUDUSD weekly with parallel lines that I’ve had on there for a couple of years now so I trust their reliability.

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The zoomed weekly below clearly shows the bullish engulfing reversal candle pattern and previous weekly reversal patterns. A 50% retrace (much less than previous reversals) would take us back to 9954.

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Other AUD crosses are showing similar reversal patterns. AUDJPY weekly below shows the reversal “hammer” candle at a long term support/resistance line.

aj03

AUDCHF weekly is another interesting chart. First there is a horizontal level that has been KEY many time previously. Being across several years now it’s difficult to give a precise level but the 8850-8900 area is a broad guide to where it should be. The latest candle is a “hammer” reversal bouncing off the pitchfork support tine (which I have re-aligned, thanks to @totterdell91)

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EURAUD weekly below shows similar reversal candles at a key weekly level.

ea02

GBPAUD weekly below shows the same. But keep in mind it did make a new 3yr high.

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AUDCAD weekly is similar in that it has a reversal candle albeit a weak one. You would have to separately judge the strength of CAD as well and from what I see on USDCAD, the loonie looks stronger than the aussie.

AL05

On my previous post I had included the RSI indicator on most charts to support my views. I’ve omitted it this time as I firmly believe price and price action comes first. And the action loudly speaks near term reversal to me and more upside to come.

(One chart that is probably the most important of all the charts in the world right now is the NIKKEI. If 12400 area fails then ignore all the above. :))

10c

The Aussie Dollar: On Cliff’s Edge

A huge move by the Aussie Dollar these past two weeks has prompted a closer look at longer term charts of all the AUD crosses. Comments on the charts.

[Click on image to open in new tab then click on 1529×917 to open in full size. Used to go to full size straight away but don’t know why now]

AC01 aj02 al03 AN01 au01 ea01 ga02

As you can see most of the charts agree that AUD is on the edge of the cliff.

USD/JPY 27/12/2012

With the target from our analysis 4 weeks ago hit, it’s time to look forward again. It’s been a huge move. Although we don’t know what will happen next we can think in terms of probabilities. USD/JPY is overbought on daily and weekly charts. We can expect some kind of relief at some point and now is as good a time as any. It doesn’t have to, it doesn’t need to, it could break out higher as I click on “publish”, but then we’d never trade. As the daily chart below shows, a backtest of the aqua line at a previous resistance point near 82.85 would keep the up move healthy and remain bullish.

uj1

But what if it wants to go higher? It’s tricky looking up higher as there is not much to the left of current price so I’ve opted for the Fibonacci expansion to find potential targets. Assuming the current move is 100% complete then higher targets can be found at 91.00 and then near 94.50 as per chart below. But only if the current move is complete. Any move to new highs in the next day or two would invalidate all of the above requiring a re-drawing of the charts. And if it marches on relentlessly then there’s not much in the way to 94.50.

uj2

10c

USD/JPY

With a ripping move in the last two weeks, USD/JPY is on the radar again. Any time the yen weakens we hear about the enormous Japanese public debt and their seemingly eternal easing program and how it’s all going to come crashing down. Then there is the almost comical official “reactions” to yen strength. Since the all time high of about 306 in December of 1975, it made a record low of 75.55 in October of 2011. In the 80’s economic boom the exchange rate moved from 260 in early 1985 to 120 in 3 years – a massive appreciation! When Japanese economy, stock market, property prices peaked in 1990 the exchange rate was 160. All that can be seen on the charts below which will naturally exclude anything fundamental about the USD/JPY. Most charts have comments on them and I’m starting from lower timeframes first.

[click on charts to open in new tab]

uj07

uj09

uj06uj04uj08uj01

So whilst everyone can see that the loooong term trend is down for this pair, markets move up and down and we shouldn’t be surprised if this pair goes a lot higher. Doesn’t mean it will even though there is a lot of energy about 85.50 in the shorter term.

10c